Tax season 2026 is the most consequential filing period in nearly a decade. This guide breaks down OBBBA changes, 1099-K rules, new deductions, refund timing, and the April 15 deadline for taxpayers, self-employed workers, and online sellers.
Tax Season 2026: Every Key Change, Deadline, and Deduction You Need Right Now
Tax season 2026 is the most consequential filing period in nearly a decade. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduced retroactive deductions for tips, overtime pay, and state and local taxes, while the average refund climbed to $3,804, up over 10 percent from the prior year. Whether you are a W-2 employee, a self-employed seller, or a small business owner, tax season 2026 contains at least one material change that affects what you owe or what you get back. This guide covers every development.
How to Use This Guide
Start with the filing deadline and refund sections if you are preparing a standard return. If you are self-employed, jump to the 1099-K, Schedule C, and estimated tax sections. If you need to compare tax burden by location before making a move or choosing where to operate, use our U.S. State Tax Calculator to model state-level differences.
One Big Beautiful Bill Act Tax Changes for Tax Season 2026
The defining feature of tax season 2026 is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4, 2025, and retroactively effective for the 2025 tax year. The legislation, also known as OBBBA, made permanent the lower tax brackets and larger standard deduction introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, which had been scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. Without OBBBA, tax season 2026 would have arrived with significantly higher rates and a standard deduction roughly half its current size.
OBBBA also introduced six new or expanded provisions that apply directly to your 2025 tax return. Some reduce income tax for workers with tips or overtime. Others benefit seniors, parents, homeowners in high-tax states, and small businesses claiming bonus depreciation. Understanding which provisions apply to your situation is the first step toward minimizing your tax season 2026 liability and claiming every available dollar.
| OBBBA Provision | Benefit | Income Limit | Effective Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tips deduction | Up to $25,000 deductible | MAGI up to $275,000 single | 2025 to 2028 |
| Overtime deduction | Up to $12,500 deductible | MAGI up to $275,000 single | 2025 to 2028 |
| Senior deduction | Additional $6,000 above-the-line | MAGI up to $150,000 single | 2025 to 2028 |
| Child Tax Credit | Increased from $2,000 to $2,200 | Phase out at $200,000 single | 2025 permanent |
| SALT deduction cap | Raised from $10,000 to $40,000 | Phase out above $500,000 joint | 2025 to 2029 |
| Bonus depreciation | 100% first-year expensing | No income limit | Purchases after Jan 19, 2025 |
The IRS confirms that the 2026 filing season opened January 26, 2026, and the filing deadline remains April 15, 2026 for individual returns. Requesting a six-month extension by April 15 moves your filing deadline to October 15, 2026, but any tax balance you owe must still be paid by April 15 to avoid interest and late payment penalties.
No Tax on Tips Deduction 2026
Tax season 2026 is the first filing period in which tipped workers can claim a deduction for qualified tip income. The OBBBA provision allows workers in IRS-approved tip-based occupations to deduct up to $25,000 in tip income from their federal taxable income. The deduction is available to both employees and self-employed individuals and can be claimed regardless of whether you itemize or take the standard deduction.
The income limit phases out beginning at $150,000 in modified adjusted gross income for single filers and $300,000 for married couples filing jointly. For every $1,000 of MAGI above those thresholds, the deduction decreases by $100. Workers with MAGI above $275,000 single or $550,000 joint lose the deduction entirely. Tipped workers within those income limits should use Schedule 1-A, which the IRS introduced specifically for this deduction in tax season 2026.
Note that the tips deduction reduces federal income tax but does not reduce FICA taxes. Social Security and Medicare taxes still apply to the full tip amount. The net benefit depends on your marginal federal income tax bracket.
OBBBA Tips Deduction Income Limit
The qualifying occupations for the tips deduction in tax season 2026 are those where tipping is a recognized, customary practice under IRS guidance. Restaurant workers, bartenders, hotel staff, casino dealers, and similar service workers qualify. Workers in salaried or hourly roles where tipping does not occur as a matter of industry custom do not qualify regardless of whether they occasionally receive tips. If you are uncertain whether your occupation qualifies, IRS guidance published for tax season 2026 provides an approved occupation list you can check before claiming the deduction.
No Tax on Overtime Deduction 2026
Tax season 2026 introduces a parallel deduction for overtime pay. Workers subject to overtime requirements under the Fair Labor Standards Act can deduct up to $12,500 in overtime compensation from their federal taxable income. Married couples filing jointly can deduct up to $25,000. The same phase out structure applies: the deduction begins reducing at $150,000 MAGI for single filers and $300,000 for joint filers, reaching zero at $275,000 and $550,000 respectively.
The overtime deduction applies to the premium portion of overtime pay, meaning the extra half in time-and-a-half compensation, not the entire overtime paycheck. Workers whose employers have not updated their W-2 or payroll reporting systems to distinguish regular pay from overtime premium pay may need to reconstruct the deductible amount using their own pay records or check with their employer's payroll department before filing.
Overtime Pay Deduction Calculation
To calculate the deductible overtime amount for tax season 2026, identify total hours worked at the overtime rate during the year, then calculate the premium amount only. If your regular rate is $20 per hour and your overtime rate is $30 per hour, the premium is $10 per hour. Multiply $10 by your total overtime hours to arrive at the deductible premium amount, subject to the $12,500 cap. Workers with very high overtime hours may reach the cap well before year-end and should track their deductible overtime running total throughout the year.
Senior Deduction OBBBA 2026
Tax season 2026 introduces an additional deduction of $6,000 for taxpayers age 65 or older, above and beyond the standard deduction or itemized deductions. Married couples filing jointly where both spouses are 65 or older can claim $12,000. The deduction is above-the-line, meaning it reduces adjusted gross income whether you itemize or take the standard deduction.
The senior deduction phases out beginning at $75,000 MAGI for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers. It is available for tax years 2025 through 2028 under current law and requires a Social Security number valid for work. Seniors who qualify should confirm the deduction appears on Line 13 of their Form 1040 when reviewing their tax software output during tax season 2026.
Child Tax Credit 2026 Increase
The OBBBA increased the Child Tax Credit from $2,000 to $2,200 per qualifying child for the 2025 tax year. The income phase out thresholds remain at $200,000 for single filers and $400,000 for married couples filing jointly. The refundable portion of the credit also increased, allowing families with lower tax liabilities to receive more of the credit as a refund rather than just as a reduction in taxes owed. Parents who did not claim the full Child Tax Credit in prior years due to the $2,000 cap should note the higher amount available for tax season 2026.
Standard Deduction 2026 and the Itemizing Decision
The standard deduction for tax season 2026 reflects both the TCJA permanent extension and an additional 5% increase introduced by OBBBA for the 2025 tax year. For single filers, the standard deduction is approximately $15,750. For married couples filing jointly, the figure rises to approximately $31,500. Taxpayers who are 65 or older or blind receive an additional amount on top of the base standard deduction before any OBBBA senior deduction is applied.
The practical question every taxpayer faces in tax season 2026 is whether to take the standard deduction or itemize deductions on Schedule A. For most taxpayers the standard deduction will remain the better choice. The expanded SALT cap, however, makes itemizing more attractive for homeowners in high-tax states who were previously constrained by the $10,000 SALT limit.
SALT Deduction Cap 2026
The state and local tax deduction cap jumps from $10,000 to $40,000 for tax season 2026, covering deductions for state income taxes or general sales taxes, real estate property taxes, and qualifying personal property taxes. The $40,000 cap applies to both single filers and married couples filing jointly. It increases by 1% annually through 2029, then reverts to $10,000 in 2030 under current law unless Congress acts to extend it.
The higher SALT cap changes the itemizing calculation for homeowners in California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and other high-tax states who previously hit the $10,000 ceiling every year and therefore gained little benefit from itemizing. In tax season 2026, a homeowner with $25,000 in state income tax and $12,000 in property tax has $37,000 in SALT deductions alone, approaching the full cap. Adding mortgage interest transforms itemizing into a clearly superior choice over the standard deduction for that taxpayer.
SALT Deduction Phase Out for High Income
The increased SALT cap is not universal. For taxpayers with MAGI above $500,000 for married filers or $250,000 for married filers filing separately, the $40,000 cap begins to reduce by $0.30 for every dollar of MAGI above the threshold. The cap does not fall below $10,000 regardless of income. A married couple with $700,000 in MAGI, for example, faces a SALT cap of $40,000 minus 30% of the $200,000 excess, resulting in a cap of approximately $34,000. High-income filers in high-tax states should model both the standard deduction and itemized scenarios carefully during tax season 2026 before deciding which approach produces the lower liability.
Standard Deduction vs Itemizing 2026
Choosing between the standard deduction and itemizing in tax season 2026 comes down to whether your allowable itemized deductions exceed the standard deduction for your filing status. The main categories of itemized deductions are SALT (now capped at $40,000), mortgage interest, charitable contributions, and qualifying medical expenses above 7.5% of AGI.
Itemized deductions that commonly tip the scales in favor of Schedule A in tax season 2026 include:
- SALT deductions for homeowners in high-tax states who previously hit the $10,000 cap
- Mortgage interest on home loans, which remains fully deductible up to applicable limits
- Large charitable contributions, subject to the new 0.5% AGI floor for itemizers effective January 1, 2026
- Significant unreimbursed medical expenses exceeding the 7.5% of AGI threshold
Taxpayers who previously accepted the standard deduction automatically should reassess in tax season 2026 given the SALT cap expansion. A change in itemizing status also affects which credits and adjustments produce the maximum benefit.
Tax Refund 2026: Timeline, Amounts, and Status Checks
Tax refunds in tax season 2026 are running ahead of the prior year both in total dollars refunded and in average refund size. As of late February 2026, the IRS reported an average refund of $3,804, representing a 10.2% increase compared to the same point in the 2025 filing season. The IRS has attributed the higher average to OBBBA provisions including new deductions and the expanded Child Tax Credit, combined with the fact that paycheck withholding tables were not adjusted during 2025 to reflect the retroactive tax cuts.
Refund size varies significantly by taxpayer profile. Workers who received tips or overtime pay and qualify for the new deductions will see the largest refund increases. Families with qualifying children benefit from the higher Child Tax Credit. Seniors qualifying for the $6,000 additional deduction and homeowners in high-tax states who now itemize for the first time due to the SALT expansion round out the groups most likely to receive a materially larger refund in tax season 2026.
Where Is My Refund 2026
The IRS Where's My Refund tool at IRS.gov is the primary channel for tracking refund status during tax season 2026. The tool updates daily, typically overnight, and shows three statuses: Return Received, Refund Approved, and Refund Sent. Most electronically filed returns with direct deposit selected receive refunds within 21 days of the IRS accepting the return. Paper filed returns take considerably longer, sometimes eight weeks or more depending on IRS processing volume.
To use Where's My Refund, you need your Social Security number or ITIN, your filing status, and the exact refund amount shown on your return. The IRS also offers the IRS2Go mobile app, which provides the same information. Calling the IRS for a refund status update before the 21-day electronic filing window has passed rarely produces additional information beyond what the online tool shows.
Average Tax Refund 2026 Amount
The average refund in tax season 2026 as of mid-February was approximately $3,804. This figure is a mean across all filers who received refunds through that date and does not predict any individual taxpayer's outcome. Workers who received substantial overtime pay and qualify for the full $12,500 deduction at a 22% marginal rate receive approximately $2,750 in reduced federal tax liability from that deduction alone. A two-income household in a high-tax state that now itemizes SALT for the first time after the cap expansion could see even larger changes in their refund relative to prior years.
Tax Filing Deadline April 15 2026
The federal income tax filing deadline for tax season 2026 is April 15, 2026. This deadline applies to individual Form 1040 returns for the 2025 tax year. Taxpayers who cannot file by April 15 may request an automatic six-month extension by submitting Form 4868, moving their filing deadline to October 15, 2026. The extension is granted automatically upon request and does not require explanation or approval.
Filing an extension does not postpone the payment deadline. Any taxes owed must be estimated and paid by April 15, 2026 even if you plan to file the return later. Taxes paid after April 15 without an extension on file accrue interest and a failure-to-pay penalty of 0.5% of the unpaid amount per month. Taxes owed but covered by an extension payment by April 15 avoid the late payment penalty even though the return has not yet been filed.
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Read the guide1099-K Form Rules for Tax Season 2026
Form 1099-K is the most searched and most misunderstood document in tax season 2026 for the tens of millions of Americans who received payments through online marketplaces, payment apps, and gig economy platforms. The reporting threshold for the 2025 tax year is $20,000 in gross payments combined with more than 200 transactions on a single platform. Platforms including Amazon, Walmart, eBay, Etsy, PayPal, Venmo, and Cash App were required to issue the form to qualifying users by January 31, 2026.
The most important fact about 1099-K reporting in tax season 2026 is that receiving the form does not define your tax bill. The form reports gross payment volume, not taxable income. Fees paid to the platform, shipping costs, refunds issued, and the cost of goods you sold all reduce the gross figure to arrive at net taxable income. Every one of those items is deductible and must be documented with records to support the difference between what the form shows and what you report as income.
1099-K Reporting Threshold 2026
The $20,000 and 200-transaction threshold for Form 1099-K in tax season 2026 was set at elevated levels following IRS guidance that delayed the original lower threshold. Platforms may still issue 1099-K forms at amounts below the threshold at their own discretion. More critically, the IRS requires all income from selling goods or services to be reported on your tax return regardless of whether a 1099-K was issued. The threshold governs when platforms must send the form, not when income becomes taxable.
The IRS automated matching system cross-references 1099-K data submitted by platforms against filed individual returns during tax season 2026. A return that shows no income corresponding to a 1099-K the IRS received from a platform generates an automated inquiry or notice. Responding to that notice requires documentation supporting the deductions that explain the difference between the gross figure on the form and the income reported on the return.
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Read the article1099-K Gross Sales vs Net Income
The gap between the gross figure on a 1099-K and net taxable income is the central calculation in 1099-K compliance during tax season 2026. A seller with $60,000 in gross Amazon sales has deductible platform fees of approximately $7,200 in referral fees plus $4,800 in FBA fulfillment fees, $18,000 in product cost, $3,500 in shipping and packaging, and $2,000 in advertising. Net taxable income is $24,500, representing 40.8% of the gross 1099-K figure. Every deduction must be supported by a record. Amazon Seller Central provides annual fee reports, transaction reports, and payout summaries that supply the documentation needed to reconstruct each deduction category.
Self-Employment Taxes in Tax Season 2026
Self-employment tax is the federal obligation that surprises the most first-time independent workers, online sellers, gig workers, and freelancers in tax season 2026. Employees split Social Security and Medicare taxes with their employer, each paying 7.65%. Self-employed individuals pay the full 15.3% because they function as both employer and employee. On top of that, self-employment income is also subject to regular federal income tax at your marginal rate.
The self-employment tax rate in tax season 2026 is 15.3% on net self-employment income up to the Social Security wage base, with 2.9% applying to amounts above that ceiling. A sole proprietor with $60,000 in Schedule C net profit owes approximately $8,478 in self-employment tax before any adjustments, plus federal income tax on the adjusted net income. Adding these together and then comparing the sum against any withholding or quarterly payments already made determines whether you owe a balance or receive a refund.
Schedule C Deductions 2026
Schedule C is the tax form where self-employed individuals and sole proprietors calculate their net business income for tax season 2026. Every legitimate business expense reduces the net profit figure that flows through to both self-employment tax and federal income tax calculations. Missing deductions is the most expensive mistake self-employed filers make, because each overlooked dollar costs both the 15.3% self-employment tax rate and the federal income tax rate simultaneously.
High-value deductions for self-employed individuals in tax season 2026 include:
- Cost of goods sold for resellers, which reduces gross income before any other expenses are applied
- Platform fees from marketplaces including referral fees, transaction fees, subscription costs, and fulfillment charges
- Home office deduction for space used regularly and exclusively for business
- Business-use portion of internet, phone, and computer costs
- Advertising and marketing expenses including platform promoted listing fees and external advertising costs
- Software subscriptions, accounting tools, inventory management systems, and repricing applications
- Professional services including tax preparer fees attributable to business portions of the return
- Vehicle business use calculated using actual expenses or the standard mileage rate
Bonus Depreciation 2026 Small Business
Tax season 2026 is the first filing period reflecting restored 100% bonus depreciation for qualifying business asset purchases made after January 19, 2025. The OBBBA reinstated full first-year expensing for equipment, machinery, computers, and qualifying property placed in service during the 2025 tax year. Small business owners who purchased business assets in 2025 can deduct the entire cost in tax season 2026 rather than depreciating it over multiple years.
Section 179 expensing limits also increased under OBBBA. Small businesses that purchased vehicles, equipment, or furniture for business use in 2025 should evaluate both bonus depreciation and Section 179 expensing to determine which produces the most favorable tax outcome for their specific situation. Business owners who made significant capital investments in 2025 expecting to depreciate them over several years should revisit that assumption in light of the restored 100% bonus depreciation benefit available in tax season 2026.
Quarterly Estimated Tax Payments for Tax Season 2026
Quarterly estimated tax payments fund your federal tax obligation throughout the year when no employer withholds taxes from your income. Self-employed individuals, freelancers, rental property owners, and investors with significant non-withheld income must make four quarterly payments to avoid an underpayment penalty. The penalty applies even if you pay your full balance by the April 15 filing deadline, because the IRS expects to collect taxes quarterly rather than in one annual lump sum.
The estimated payment deadlines for tax season 2026 income earned in 2026 are April 15, June 16, September 15, and January 15, 2027. The IRS also provided transitional relief from estimated tax penalties specifically for tax year 2025 for taxpayers impacted by OBBBA changes that were finalized after the typical tax planning window. Notice 2026-03 from the IRS addresses this relief. Taxpayers who underpaid 2025 quarterly estimates because the OBBBA rules were not finalized in time to plan around them should verify whether they qualify for the penalty waiver.
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Read the articleEstimated Tax Calculation for 2026 Income
The safest approach to quarterly estimated taxes in tax season 2026, is to pay at least 100% of your prior year tax liability across four equal quarterly installments. This safe harbor method prevents the underpayment penalty regardless of whether your current year income turns out to be higher. Taxpayers with adjusted gross income above $150,000 in the prior year must pay 110% of prior year tax liability to qualify for the safe harbor.
The alternative method is to pay 90% of your actual current year tax liability, distributed across four quarterly installments based on actual earnings each quarter. This approach is more accurate for taxpayers whose income is highly variable but requires careful tracking of quarterly net income throughout the year. Many self-employed sellers and gig workers find the prior year safe harbor simpler to administer and less likely to produce a surprise penalty.
Online Seller Taxes in Tax Season 2026
Online seller taxes in tax season 2026 carry added complexity because the IRS has intensified automated matching between 1099-K data from marketplaces and individually filed tax returns. Sellers who operate on Amazon, Walmart, eBay, Etsy, or similar platforms should treat their tax filing as a business filing even if they consider their selling activity a side income source. The volume of income, the regularity of activity, and the profit motive all factor into whether the IRS treats the activity as a business or a hobby.
Business treatment through Schedule C is advantageous for most active sellers because it allows deduction of all ordinary and necessary business expenses. Hobby treatment under Section 183 limits deductions to the amount of hobby income, eliminates the ability to claim a net loss, and prevents the deduction of most expenses entirely. Filing a Schedule C with documented deductions and accurate records is the correct approach for the vast majority of regular marketplace sellers in tax season 2026.
Economic Nexus Threshold 2026
Economic nexus determines which states can require an online seller to collect and remit state sales tax. In tax season 2026, sellers reviewing their 2025 activity during tax season 2026 may discover they crossed economic nexus thresholds in states they did not previously register in. Most states use a $100,000 annual revenue threshold from buyers in that state. Crossing the threshold creates an obligation to register for a sales tax permit, configure platform collection settings, and file periodic returns remitting collected tax to the state.
Illinois eliminated its 200-transaction threshold on January 1, 2026, leaving only the $100,000 revenue standard. Alaska made a similar change in 2025. Utah dropped its transaction threshold in 2025 as well. These changes mean that low-volume, high-ticket sellers who previously stayed below the transaction count threshold in those states may now owe registration and filing obligations based purely on revenue. Sellers who have not audited their state-by-state revenue exposure since 2024 should run a state report from their marketplace account before finalizing their tax season 2026 obligations.
Marketplace Facilitator Law 2026
Marketplace facilitator laws require Amazon, Walmart, eBay, Etsy, and other major platforms to collect and remit state sales tax on behalf of third-party sellers for transactions processed through the platform. Every US state that imposes sales tax has enacted marketplace facilitator laws. For most marketplace sellers in tax season 2026, this means the platform handled sales tax collection automatically on marketplace transactions and no additional action is required for those transactions specifically.
The limitation is that marketplace facilitator coverage applies only to transactions processed through the facilitating platform. Sales made through your own website, direct invoicing, or in-person events are not covered. Sellers who operate both a marketplace presence and an independent sales channel must manage sales tax collection independently for the non-marketplace channel in every state where they have nexus, even if the marketplace handled the obligation for their platform transactions.
If you are deciding where income tax, sales tax, or entity structure creates the lowest ongoing burden, compare states directly with our U.S. tax calculator before filing or relocating.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the tax filing deadline for tax season 2026?
The federal income tax filing deadline for the 2025 tax year is April 15, 2026. Taxpayers who need more time can file Form 4868 by April 15 to receive an automatic extension to October 15, 2026. Any taxes owed must still be paid by April 15 to avoid interest and penalties, even if the return itself is not filed until October. Tax season 2026 began January 26, 2026, and the IRS accepts returns electronically from that date forward.
How much is the average tax refund in 2026?
The average tax refund in tax season 2026 was approximately $3,804 as of mid-February, representing a 10.2% increase compared to the prior year at the same point in the filing season. The IRS attributes the increase primarily to OBBBA provisions including the tips deduction, overtime deduction, expanded Child Tax Credit, and the higher standard deduction. Individual refund amounts vary significantly based on withholding, income level, filing status, and which OBBBA provisions each taxpayer qualifies to claim.
Can I deduct tips income in tax season 2026?
Yes, if you work in a qualifying tip-based occupation. The OBBBA provision allows eligible workers to deduct up to $25,000 in qualified tip income from their federal taxable income for the 2025 tax year. The deduction phases out beginning at $150,000 MAGI for single filers and $300,000 for married filing jointly. It is claimed on Schedule 1-A and reduces federal income tax but not Social Security and Medicare taxes. Qualifying occupations are defined in IRS guidance published for tax season 2026.
What is the SALT deduction limit for tax season 2026?
The SALT deduction cap for tax season 2026 is $40,000 for both single filers and married couples filing jointly. This is an increase from the $10,000 cap that applied from 2018 through 2024. The higher cap phases out for taxpayers with MAGI above $500,000 for joint filers and $250,000 for married filing separately, but does not fall below $10,000 regardless of income. The $40,000 limit applies through the 2029 tax year under current law, increasing by 1% annually, before reverting to $10,000 in 2030.
Do I owe taxes on my 1099-K form in tax season 2026?
Not necessarily on the full amount. Your 1099-K reports gross payment volume, not taxable income. The taxes you owe in tax season 2026 on marketplace or payment app income are calculated on net profit after deducting cost of goods sold, platform fees, shipping, refunds issued, and other legitimate business expenses. Document every deduction with records from your platform's annual seller reports, bank statements, and receipts. The difference between the gross 1099-K amount and your reported income must be explainable and defensible.
What new deductions are available for small businesses in tax season 2026?
Small businesses filing for tax season 2026 covering the 2025 tax year can benefit from restored 100% bonus depreciation on qualifying assets purchased after January 19, 2025, increased Section 179 expensing limits, and the qualified business income deduction which remains in place under the OBBBA. Self-employed individuals can also claim the tips deduction and overtime deduction if they qualify based on occupation and income. These changes make tax season 2026 one of the more favorable filing periods for self-employed business owners in recent memory.
How do I check my refund status during tax season 2026?
Use the IRS Where's My Refund tool at IRS.gov or the IRS2Go mobile app. You need your Social Security number or ITIN, your filing status, and the exact refund amount on your return. The tool updates daily and shows three stages: Return Received, Refund Approved, and Refund Sent. Electronically filed returns with direct deposit typically produce refunds within 21 days of IRS acceptance. Paper returns take significantly longer. Calling the IRS for an update before the 21-day window passes generally does not provide information beyond what the online tool already shows.
Who must make quarterly estimated tax payments in 2026?
Any self-employed individual, freelancer, gig worker, or investor who expects to owe more than $1,000 in federal taxes for the year must make quarterly estimated tax payments. The four payment deadlines for 2026 income are April 15, June 16, September 15, and January 15, 2027. Paying at least 100% of your prior year tax liability, or 110% if your prior year AGI exceeded $150,000, qualifies you for the safe harbor that eliminates the underpayment penalty even if your actual 2026 tax liability turns out to be higher than estimated.
